The confidence people have in their beliefs is not a measure of the quality of evidence but of the coherence of the story the mind has managed to construct.— Daniel Kahneman
The most reckoning Daniel Kahneman quotes that will activate your desire to change
A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth. Authoritarian institutions and marketers have always known this fact.
This is the essence of intuitive heuristics: when faced with a difficult question, we often answer an easier one instead, usually without noticing the substitution.
Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.
Declarations of high confidence mainly tell you that an idividual has construced a coherent story in his mind, not necessarily that the story is true.
The idea that the future is unpredictable is undermined every day by the ease with which the past is explained.
By their very nature, heuristic shortcuts will produce biases, and that is true for both humans and artificial intelligence, but the heuristics of AI are not necessarily the human ones.
The illusion that we understand the past fosters overconfidence in our ability to predict the future.
Mind is a machine for jumping to conclusions
The 'Instagram Generation' now experiences the present as an anticipated memory
The psychologist, Paul Rozin, an expert on disgust, observed that a single cockroach will completely wreck the appeal of a bowl of cherries, but a cherry will do nothing at all for a bowl of cockroaches.
We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events.
Human beings cannot comprehend very large or very small numbers.
It would be useful for us to acknowledge that fact.
Overconfidence is a powerful source of illusions, primarily determined by the quality and coherence of the story that you can construct, not by its validity.
People who face a difficult question often answer an easier one instead, without realizing it.
Facts that challenge basic assumptions-and thereby threaten people's livelihood and self-esteem-are simply not absorbed. The mind does not digest them.
I would not advise people to buy a car or house without making a list.
You will probably improve your intuitions by making a list and then sleeping on it.
We associate leadership with decisiveness.
That perception of leadership pushes people to make decisions fairly quickly, lest they be seen as dithering and indecisive.
When everybody in a group is susceptible to similar biases, groups are inferior to individuals, because groups tend to be more extreme than individuals.
A plan is only a scenario, and almost by definition, it is optimistic.
.. As a result, scenario planning can lead to a serious underestimate of the risk of failure.
Establish a closing ritual. Know when to stop working. Try to end each work day the same way, too. Straighten up your desk. Back up your computer. Make a list of what you need to do tomorrow.
The easiest way to increase happiness is to control your use of time.
If you care about being thought credible and intelligent, do not use complex language where simpler language will do.
The evidence is unequivocal, there's a great deal more luck than skill in people getting very rich.
Intelligence is not only the ability to reason;
it is also the ability to find relevant material in memory and to deploy attention when needed.
When action is needed, optimism, even of the mildly delusional variety, may be a good thing.
Knowing the importance of luck, you should be particularly suspicious when highly consistent patterns emerge from the comparison of successful and less successful firms. In the presence of randomness, regular patterns can only be mirages.
Being wealthy is often a powerful predictor that people spend less time doing pleasurable things and more time doing compulsory things and feeling stressed.
You should not take your intuitions at face value.
If people do not know what is going to make them better off or give them pleasure, then the idea that you can trust people to do what will give them pleasure becomes questionable.
That's one of the real dangers of leader selection in many organizations: leaders are selected for overconfidence.
Survival prospects are poor for an animal that is not suspicious of novelty.
One of the problems with expertise is that people have it in some domains and not in others.
People assign much higher probability to the truth of their opinions than is warranted.
One of the major biases in risky decision making is optimism.
Optimism is a source of high-risk thinking.
Below an income of ... $60,000 a year, people are unhappy, and they get progressively unhappier the poorer they get. Above that, we get an absolutely flat line. ... Money does not buy you experiential happiness, but lack of money certainly buys you misery.
To better avoid errors, you should talk to people who disagree with you and you should talk to people who are not in the same emotional situation you are.
The concept of loss aversion is certainly the most significant contribution of psychology to behavioral economics.
The dominance of conclusions over arguments is most pronounced where emotions are involved.
I'm not a great believer in self-help.
A person who has not made peace with his losses is likely to accept gambles that would be unacceptable to him otherwise.
Managers think of themselves as captains of a ship on a stormy sea.
Risk for them is danger, but they are fighting it, very controlled.
The brain scientists are the wave of the future in the financial world.
If you seek to maximize understanding, whether you're in academia or in the investment community, you'd better pay serious attention to them.
Acquisition of skills requires a regular environment, an adequate opportunity to practice, and rapid and unequivocal feedback about the correctness of thoughts and actions.
In strategic decisions, I'd be really concerned about overconfidence.
What happens with fear is that probability doesn't matter very much.
That is, once I have raised the possibility that something terrible can happen to your child, even though the possibility is remote, you may find it very difficult to think of anything else. Emotion becomes dominant.
The premise of this book is that it is easier to recognize other people's mistakes than your own.
Doubts are suppressed by groups... But remember that the internal incentives that shape how the group perceives risks and rewards may be very different from the reality of the risks and rewards in the external marketplace. Those incentives can distort risk perception.
When people think of the outcomes of their decisions, they think much more short term than that. They think in terms of gains and losses.
People exaggerate their confidence in their plans - something we call the planning fallacy... The existence of the plan tends to induce overconfidence.
Experts don't know exactly where the boundaries of their expertise are.